Mike Walsh

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The Silver Lining

Posted by Mike Walsh ON 7/28/08 8:03 AM

silverApple's new MobileMe service has had a tough reception. Not entirely unsurprising. After all, when you are heralding the second coming of the 'Jesus Phone', its inevitable that expectations might be running unfairly high.

Yet when the furor over the buggy release dies down, I think people will realise that in some ways MobileMe is more significant than the new iPhone itself. Here's why - cloud storage is the future. We have been building to this point for a while. The real impact of Web2.0 was not new interface designs or crazy social networking site valuations - but the idea that websites should be platforms, and that your data should live on the web not on your PC. Contacts, photos, articles, comments, videos - when data lives in the cloud it is not only accessible from wherever you are, it is able to interact with other bits of data as well.

New services like MobileMe will do for your data what Facebook did with your contact book. It will become a bridge between your devices and the rest of the world. Ray Ozzie at Microsoft had planned a similar strategy with Mesh, but like any release of Windows - that too seems to have been lost in translation. Of course, eventually I believe it won't just be your own data that will live in the cloud - the world's entertainment and media content will also migrate from your devices and be available streaming on demand.

However for any of this to be remotely useful, one big thing has to change - cheap, global, data roaming. There is no point having all the content in the world at your fingertips when you are getting done over a barrel on international data roaming charges. If Bill Gates in the eighties dreamed of a computer on every desktop, I'd like to imagine a world with a fixed price, all you can eat, global mobile broadband data contract.

Now that will be the start of the real revolution.

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CATEGORY: Culture

The Future of the ABC

Posted by Mike Walsh ON 7/9/08 12:53 AM

tvboxHad a very interesting chat last night at the FED with Mark Scott, Managing Director of the ABC. If you didn't make the event you can listen to the podcast. The premise of what it means to be a 'public broadcaster' over the next few years is set for a collision course with dramatic changes in the media consumption behaviour of audiences as well as the new economics of funding content.

The ABC have been successful lately in nurturing local content programming like The Chaser and Summer Heights High, which might have otherwise got lost in the reality TV mire of commercial TV networks. Both shows have done well in engaging younger viewers through building audience networks on new platforms like Myspace.

Experimentation is good news for Australian media - after all, if any broadcaster is in a financial position to take risks with the distribution model of content - it is the ABC. IP based distribution of ABC content is growing - by all accounts by the end of 2008, the ABC will have facilitated 50 million downloads of its shows. That raises two questions. Firstly, should ABC content be provided to local audiences unmetered through ISPs as part of an expanded notion of public distribution? And secondly, is the future of public broadcasting really broadcast at all?

Part of Mark's vision of the future was a multitude of new ABC channels. On this point, I disagree. In ten years, where most of the world's media content will be delivered on demand, time shifted by a PVR or streamed through an IP network - the concept of a 'channel' will have little meaning. The real question for the ABC is how it can continue to feed the long tail of Australian content, while becoming useful as a community platform for the discovery and distribution of local stories. And that's a scary thought.

As Mark observed, when you are held accountable at Senate Estimate Meetings for every piece of content, whether it be a TV show or a talkback call - the notion of unmoderated social media is not an easy one to countenance.

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CATEGORY: Media

Aural Pleasures

Posted by Mike Walsh ON 6/29/08 2:47 AM

AuralI've been enjoying listening to the new city guides jointly released by Louis Vuitton and Soundwalk. Narrated by three well known local actors (Gong Li, Shu Qi, and Joan Chen) they blend personal anecdotes with ambient sounds and slick audio production.

The result is quite compelling. It's an amazing experience walking around a city, even one familiar to you, hearing someone else's perspectives on what you are seeing. And it's only going to get more sophisticated. As most of us start carrying GPS/phone/MP3 devices - geotagged audio tours are going to be the guide books of the future. Smart move by Louis Vuitton. After all, once luxury brands exhaust the possibilities of expensive objects there is only thing left to sell. Curated brand experiences.

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CATEGORY: Travel

Music Matters

Posted by Mike Walsh ON 6/8/08 1:52 PM

musicThere is a massive gap between traditional music industry economics and the rapidly evolving behavior of Asian media consumers. I spent a few days last week at the Music Matters conference in Hong Kong listening to some of the most senior record label executives dissect the complexities of their situation. Contradictions abound. Online piracy in China is rampant, and yet China Mobile made nearly US$1.7 billion last year selling caller ring back tones. Most of Baidu's traffic comes from its illicit MP3 search service, while authorised mobile download services in Japan are growing rapidly.

As always, there was a big white elephant. In this case - what happens when the consumer pressure for music to go free becomes irresistible - whether bundled with devices, streamed through licensing deals, or just downright freely available. When I interviewed Terry McBride, CEO of Nettwerk Music and Avril's Lavigne, he was more than ready to face that eventuality. His view was merchandise, events, and packaged fan access products would make up for the loss of CD sales. Paul McGuiness, in a controversial keynote, was less sanguine. He likened ISPs to shoplifters and accused them of rigging the market. Later in the conference, Bob Lefsetz ook cruel and unusual pleasure in ripping him apart.

The Asian music market is a subtle and fascinating study in the new dynamics of digital entertainment. For more details, stay tuned for the next episode of 'The Tomorrow Report' which will contain snippets of the conference, video interviews with some of the big industry personalities and an overview of the relevant market numbers. You can sign up for regular episodes either by email, iTunes or RSS.

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CATEGORY: Media

Fuel, Whales & Short Sleeved Suits

Posted by Mike Walsh ON 6/2/08 10:41 AM

FuelUsually the rise and fall of commodity prices would be the last thing I'd be interested in. But the global drama unfolding over oil is riveting, particularly the broader historical context. Case in point is a piece in today's Financial Times looking at the demise of the 19th century Whaling industry, while the editorial in this week's Economist features an analysis of the 70s oil shock.

Look closely, and behind the recent rise of oil prices is a intricate opportunity/crisis ecosystem driven by the energy lust of developing Asian countries, the interplay of food prices and biofuel subsidies, the emerging bubble in Silicon Valley funded clean tech companies, and the waning geopolitical influence of the US in both China and the Middle East. Oil has become the ultimate example of a complex dynamic system. Not that it's just economics. Take shoene rukku for example - a Japanese style of short-sleeved business suit inspired by the last energy crisis. As Joi Ito pointed out in a post from 2002, back then even the Japanese prime minister enjoyed wearing them. Roll over Saville Row. It's time to turn off the AC.

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CATEGORY: Marketing

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