Apples vs Oranges

Posted by Mike Walsh

10/4/08 12:23 AM

2157054544 0c71b77deb bThe sales assistant in the downtown NYC TMobile store was effusive to say the least. He shrugged at my hacked Hong Kong iPhone, and pulled out the new Google phone and waved it at me. 'This changes everything', he said. 'I can check an address on my map, zoom into 3D street level and then actually see a picture of my own shop. And even better, I can scan the SKUs of my products, and see if they are cheaper down the road'. I nodded politely, thinking that if anything was going to change with the new Google phone, it may simply be the number of people spending money at his overpriced shop.

But it did provoke another thought. What we are seeing now is what you might call the third phase of the mobile evolution. Phase one was about transforming eighties mobile bricks into slick, design lust objects. Phase two was about figuring out how to make mobiles impersonate your Walkman and personal video player. Phase three, in my opinion will now pit Apple, Google and Microsoft against each other as they all attempt to control the ecosystem for cloud based applications.



I won't speculate as to the odds of who will win that, save for making two observations. Firstly, cloud based platforms are, in the end, a winner takes all game. It comes down to scale. More users means more data, more data means more value, which in turn increases your ability to play dirty to win even more users. 



Secondly, the rise of the mobile data cloud is (another) big wake up call for Telcos. The more that value is delivered as a result of cloudware rather than software, bundled content or product design - the more commoditised the simple act of providing a data pipe becomes. Unlocked handsets are the future, as are unlimited mobile data plans that allow the dreaded voice over IP. As the pools of fast WiFI expand across urban areas, and geeks figure out how to make mesh networks easily run on mobile phones - the days of being able to charge monopoly rents for merely plugging holes in people's network coverage will draw to a close far swifter than anyone on the executive floor may realise.


Topics: Culture

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